Among the many storylines to track at WTCS Cagliari, there was one detail in particular that stood out.
Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde treated us to yet another showdown, one that resulted in their closest finish yet over the Olympic distance as Yee won by 2 seconds. In a call back to last season, the same 2 seconds were all that separated Wilde from Yee (and Vasco Vilaca) in his victory at WTCS Hamburg. Over the Super Sprint distances, such small margins are to be expected though. The picture is meant to look a little different over 10km.
I have had sneezes that have lasted longer than the difference between Yee and Wilde at the finish line in Cagliari (no, that’s not a medical condition; yes, I may simply be approaching my “dad sneeze” era). The margin of victory, however, was not what really mattered.
The crucial detail was that, while Yee won by 2 seconds, not a single one of his or Wilde’s splits were more than a second apart (credit to Wilde for bringing this to our attention). Yee had the upper hand by 1 second in the swim with his time of 18:42 while Wilde’s split of 50:58 was quicker by the same second. The two men had matching transitions and then Yee out-split Wilde 29:12 to 29:13 on the run (the 2 seconds margin of victory therefore involved a degree of rounding).
After years of egging one another on, the two men have arrived at a point, two months before the Paris Olympics no less, in which they are separated by a single second. If you are sitting right now, stand up and then sit down again. In the time it took you to do that the gap between Yee and Wilde came and went.
We have seen close rivalries in the WTCS, such as most memorably in the Brownlee-Gomez era, but we have never seen something as tight as this.
To begin with, the splits highlight just how finely poised the balance is between the two stars. It is hard to imagine a more equal race. In addition, the latest splits highlight how – somehow – the two men have drawn even closer in the year since WTCS Cagliari 2023. A year ago, they were identical (17:22) in the water. Yee gained 2 seconds in transition only for Wilde to snatch them back on the bike. Another matching T2 (23 seconds) followed before Yee out-kicked Wilde again with a 28:31 10km to 28:35.
A year of training then has brought Wilde a couple of seconds closer, to the point that he is literally breathing down Yee’s neck. He is so close that in any other environment his proximity would probably constitute a harassment offence. And yet that final second remains.
The question to ask following Cagliari is therefore simple. How big is 1 second?
Those with a classic linear understanding of time will argue that it is not very big at all. Wilde has already gained enough time on Yee so finding another second will not be any great step.
However, psychologically, there is a chance that 1 second is actually massive. On the surface, Cagliari can be chalked up as another defeat for Wilde. At this point everyone is past the platitudes of saying how great a silver medal is because, while silver is a success to everyone else in the field, gold has become the only currency in which Yee and Wilde deal. With that in mind, 2nd represents mission failed. Surely there are only so many times that Wilde can be beaten (over the Sprint and Olympic distances) until the final second becomes insurmountable.
Maybe, though, there is a third way of viewing the second.
Wilde is renowned for the aggression with which he races and his mini-break on the bike in Cagliari was the latest example of that. After the race, Yee also spoke of the extent to which he and Wilde tested each other constantly around the run with slight moves and jabs and this was particularly visible from Wilde in the early stages of the 10km. Indeed, at one stage, his incendiary pace forced Yee to give up a couple of metres and check himself almost in surprise at the pace. Naturally, shortly after, Yee responded with some heat of his own.
This is where the 1 second comes in because it may actually be a mirage; it does not exist. The difference between the two men is even smaller than the number on the page. It is the blink of an eye, the twitch of a finger on a trigger. Their separation has to all intents and purposes surpassed the realm of the physical because there is virtually nothing left to extract. Yee and Wilde have pushed one another to such highs that, all things being equal on the day, this magical, non-existent second either way is what will determine the Olympic gold.
Maybe it will be psychological and who wants it more, although that feels too basic and reductive. The second between them will more likely be settled by who has the better breakfast on the day of the race, who takes their drink at the right moment on the bike, or who times their final attack best. A move 1 second too early will guarded. A move 1 second too late will be, well, it’s self-explanatory.
If we interpret 1 second as being big then Yee’s psychological advantage over Wilde should see him past his great rival in Paris, just as he did in Cagliari. Conversely if we treat 1 second as small, a new probability comes into play. In this outlook, Yee’s winning record and Wilde’s recent 5000m PB and a dozen other factors melt away. Form and everything else simply go out the window.
When 1 second, that tiny 1 second, is all there is, the situation is clear. The battle between Yee and Wilde has become the most even the sport has ever seen and the chances of either man beating the other in Paris can only be described in one way: 50-50.
